The Oscars

It is Oscar time once again and here are my predictions for this year's awards.  The problem with the Oscars, much like any awards ceremony, it subjectivity and politics.  For instance, the Best picture category expanded to 10 movies entirely because of the snubbing of The Dark Knight, now the Academy has decided up to 10 movies can be nominated and this year only 9 got the nod, snubbing The Dark Knight Rises.  Now you can argue with me on whether or not Rises truly is a snub, because movies like The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, and small budget Safety Not Guaranteed were equally as good, but it is ironic to find a category snub the big brother of a movie, that made the category expand.  

For each of these categories I will predict who I think will win and who the Academy should pick, rarely do they match up in any given year.

Best Picture

The Nominees are:  Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty.  

The Academy Should Pick:  Argo

The Winner Is..:  Argo

This year there is no definite winner for best picture.  I loved Les Miz, but the critics hated it, so that's out.  Django was good, but not great.  The same can be said for most of the movies in this category.  However there are three standouts:  Argo, Lincoln, and Life of Pi.  I will go into Life of Pi in other categories but I think this is a race between Argo and Lincoln.  They snubbed Ben Affleck from best director so they might make it up to him.  Originally I picked Lincoln to win this category, but I came to an overall consensus on how I feel about both films.  Lincoln has moments, moments that are better than any other moments or scenes in movies this year, but overall Argo has a consistency and accuracy to the plot that makes me believe that it should and will win the Oscar.  Much like previous winning movies like Crash or Slumdog Millionaire, Argo is driven entirely by brilliant casting and it is the ensemble that deserves to be recognized.  I hope Argo wins, although if Lincoln were to take home the top prize, I wouldn't complain.  

Best Actor

The Nominees are:  Daniel Day-Lewis, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington.

The Academy Should Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln

The Winner Is..:  Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln

This isn't a competition at all.  Lewis gives, what in my opinion, is his best performance of his illustrious career.  He is quite possibly the greatest modern actor, and in the top five for greatest actors ever.  The other four candidates in this category give solid performances, but as with This is Spinal Tap, Lewis is an 11 out of 10.  On a side note, John Hawkes was robbed for not getting a nomination.

Best Actress

The Nominees are:  Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis, Naomi Watts.

The Academy Should Pick: Emmanuelle Riva for Amour

The Winner Is..:  Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.

I have a crush on Jennifer Lawrence, but even that crush is not enough for me to think she was great in Playbook; I'm not drinking that Kool-aid.  Nor will I drink it for Jessica Chastain.  I thought she was fine, but really there was very little "acting" done in that role.  Look angry, have no facial emotions.  Good work, but not great.  Watts has about the same performance and Wallis is great at being a kid.  Riva is the only one here who truly deserves this award, but it will go to one of the J's.  

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The Nominees are:  Tommy Lee Jones, Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Christoph Waltz

The Academy Should Pick: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln 

The Winner Is..:  Robert De Niro for Playbook.  

This is a very interesting category because for Waltz and Hoffman, I think they carried their movies.  For De Niro, this is something we have never seen from him.  Arkin is hilarious.  And Jones is down right historic.  I'd have no problem with any of these people winning, although I think Waltz as Hans Landa was much better.  I think Tommy Lee Jones gives a subtle, controlled, un-Tommy Lee Jones movie, captivating performance.  He or Hoffman would do well to win here.  But the Academy will give the award to De Niro and I'll be pissed cause Jones got screwed.

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The Nominees are:  Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt, Jacki Weaver.

The Academy Should Pick: Anne Hathaway for Les Miz.

The Winner Is..:  Anne Hathaway for Les Miz.

Normally I have a problem with giving an Academy Award for just one scene, one song, but this year I make an exception.  Top five greatest moments in movie musical theatre history, I dreamed a dream, takes on a whole new message with Hathaway.  Helen Hunt was also superb in an underrated movie, but the other three have no business in this category this year.  

Best Director

The Nominees are:  Steven Spielberg, David O Russell, Ang Lee, Benh Zeitlin, Michael Haneke

The Academy Should Pick: Ben Affleck for Argo

The Winner Is..:  Steven Spielberg for Lincoln.  

Hands down Ben Affleck gave the directing performance of a lifetime, but he was snubbed, so we go with Spielberg for his ten year+ gamble and determination.  Ang Lee also deserves to be here for taking an impossible to film book and breaking the odds.

Best Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees are:  Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

The Academy Should Pick: Tony Kushner for Lincoln

The Winner Is..:  I'm hoping for Tony Kushner for Lincoln.  

This is a worrisome pick because the odds on favorite is Argo and Life of Pi is a brilliant work, as I said, turning an impossible to film book into a brilliant screenplay.  But I have to go with my heart and my gut.  Kushner is one of the greatest living playwrights (Angels in America) and he worked on this script for multiple years.  Think about all the dialogue in this movie, there is no evidence of who said what, so Kushner essentially re-created history.  Brilliant.

Best Original Screenplay

The Nominees are:  Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty

The Academy Should Pick: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom

The Winner Is..:  Quentin Tarantino For Django Unchained

I'm actually a Quentin Tarantino fan.  But I was not a massive fan of Django Unchained.  I thought it was good but certainly not as good as Inglorious Basterds.  On the other hand, Moonrise Kingdom deserved an Oscar nod for best picture but fell into the comedy junk box.  Most people love Rushmore and Tenenbaums but I think this is a wonderful masterpiece.  The relationship between the two young students is really wonderful and it sparks from the story.  Django wins.  Moonrise Kingdom is a comedy.  

Best Cinematography

The Nominees are:  Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

The Academy Should Pick: Life of Pi

The Winner Is..: Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi

Much like the best actor category this is a lock.  I can't explain this other than to say go and watch the movie and you will understand.  

Best Animated Feature Film

The Nominees are:  Wreck-It Ralph, Brave, Frankenweenie, The Pirates! Band of Pirates. ParaNorman

The Academy Should Pick: The Pirates! Band of Pirates

The Winner Is..:  *Wreck-It Ralph

A difficult category.  Will the Academy go with the box office favorite Brave or ParaNorman, both which I found lacking in plot and character development.  Frankenweenie is not my type of movie, but it is a wonderful ode to 50's horror classics in a modern day kids comedy.  The underrated movie of the year is Pirates!  from the studio that brought you Wallace and Gromit.  But what I believe is a great movie, very smart and funny, is Wreck-It Ralph, and I hope it takes home the top prize.

Best Documentary Feature Film

The Nominees are:  Searching for Sugar Man, The Invisible War, How to Survive a Plague, The Gatekeepers, 5 Broken Cameras

The Academy Should Pick: 5 Broken Cameras

The Winner Is..:  Searching for Sugar Man

For the longest time I thought Sugar Man was not just a great doc, but a wonderful movie and one of the best of the year.  That is, until I saw 5 Broken Cameras.  This is truly a wonderful, incredibly depressing documentary masterpiece.  The scene where the camera breaks when we watch the bullet fly into the lens and save the man's life is something extraordinary.  

Best Foreign Film

The Nominees are:  Amour, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch

The Academy Should Pick: No

The Winner Is..:  Amour

Amour is going to win.  It's a lock.  But if you get the chance go and see the Chilean movie, No.  It stars Gael Garcia Bernal and looks at the Augusto Pinochet reign of terror in Chile and the ingenious way that they removed him from power.

Best Costume Design

The Nominees are:  Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman

The Academy Should Pick: Les Miserables

The Winner Is..:  Anna Karenina

I know nothing about costume design, but I liked the design in Les Miz, but Karenina was very historically accurate.

Best Makeup/Hair Design

The Nominees are:  Hitchcock, The Hobbit, Les Miserables

The Academy Should Pick: I don't care

The Winner Is..:  I don't care; Les Miserables

I could care less about this category, not because I dislike it, but because Cloud Atlas should have won this.

Best Music Score

The Nominees are:  Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

The Academy Should Pick: Life of Pi or Argo

The Winner Is..:  Argo

The Favorite is Life of Pi but I am a fan of Argo and Alexandre Desplat, and I think he managed to keep what could have sounded rather cheesy, and made it rather deep and important.

Best Original Song

The Nominees are:  Chasing Ice, Ted, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Les Miserables

The Academy Should Pick: This is a dumb category when it allows "Ted" (Which I liked) to be an Academy Nominated Movie

The Winner Is..:  Skyfall from Skyfall by Adele

I don't care.  Les Miserables is pandering by creating a song just for this category and Skyfall is a really dumb song.  But it is still Adele and she is one of the most amazing voices ever.

Best Documentary Short

The Nominees are:  Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, Redemption

The Academy Should Pick: No idea

The Winner Is..:  Open Heart

I know nothing about this category, but Open Heart  is a nice name.

Best Animated Short

The Nominees are:  Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head over Heels, Maggie Simpson..., Paperman

The Academy Should Pick:  Who has time to watch these, not Maggie Simpson.

The Winner Is..:  Adam and Dog

I saw Paperman and liked it, but I also saw Adam and Dog and because it isn't called Adam and "the" Dog, I'll pick it.

Best Live Action Short

The Nominees are:  Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow, Henry

The Academy Should Pick: Buzkashi Boys

The Winner Is..:  Buzkashi Boys

This is a short that I hope everyone gets a chance to see.  It's about two kids in Afghanistan and a very brutal national sport.  

Best Film Editing

The Nominees are:  Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

The Academy Should Pick: Argo or Zero Dark Thirty

The Winner Is..:  Argo

Argo was well edited.

Best Production Design

The Nominees are:  Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln

The Academy Should Pick: Life of Pi

The Winner Is..:  Les Miserables 

Sure

Best Sound Editing

The Nominees are:  Argo, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty

The Academy Should Pick: Argo or Life of Pi

The Winner Is..:  Skyfall

How the hell should I know.

Best Sound Mixing

The Nominees are:  Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

The Academy Should Pick: Les Miserables

The Winner Is..:  Les Miserables

This one I do know a little about.  The work the sound team did on Les Miserables was brilliant.  Tom Hooper deserved a special award for what he did on the movie and mark my words live singing is going to be the new thing in Movie Musicals, but the sound department did a brilliant job mixing the sound within the scene.  

Best Special Effects

The Nominees are:  The Hobbit, Life of Pi, The Avengers, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman

The Academy Should Pick: The Avengers

The Winner Is..:  Life of Pi

I said it in Cinematography, Life of Pi looks amazing, but why can't the blockbuster of the year win one?

Jade

a poem

You think you've moved on,

but you never really do,

you cry in your sleep,

and haven't got a clue,

your mind is a mess,

your heart is as well,

your head is on fire,

and there's no one to tell,

of the ache in your soul,

of the break in your heart,

of the death of desire,

And the pain off the chart.

You remember her face,

and her beautiful eyes,

Her smile always did show,

a most devious disguise.

Her voice did remind,

of the home you once lost,

with the need of dear friends,

and the hurt it did cost.  

Her hair was the shade,

of the East setting sun,

it sat on the top,

like a form fitted bun.

But it isn't her body,

at all you do miss,

it's the smallest of things,

like a hug, or a kiss.

It's the way every night,

that she made you feel,

like the world was alright,

and that pain wasn't real.

But her hair and her face,

and those beautiful eyes,

are gone from your world,

my how time flies.

The memories begin,

to fade like the wind,

but the feelings remain,

strong never thinned.

Now you think you've moved on,

but you never really do,

you cry in your sleep,

and haven't got a clue,

that she was the one,

so why did you lie,

now forever is gone,

your pearl in the sky.

Super Bowl "Predictions"

Those who know me know that I enjoy gambling and betting.  Enjoy is the correct word, not obsessed.  I never bet more than $30 or $40 and usually I enjoy a good gentlemen's bet with an added incentive of beer, pizza, or something to do with embarrassment.  With that in mind, today should be one of my favorite days of the year even though the Packers will be watching the game on TV.  Unfortunately, this is an abnormal year because I will be at work for the better part of the first half, but that still doesn't keep me from making a few wagers, five to be exact.  A couple on winner/loser, one on spread, one on MVP, and a final bet on the coin toss.  Yes, I bet on the coin toss.  And I will tell you why.  Here are my 10 (or so) predictions for the Superbowl.

11.  The first one doesn't count on the list because it has partially already happened and it is kind of a given.  This will be one of the greatest weekends in the history of the Harbaugh family.  At the end of the day one of the kids will win and last night the Harbaugh's brother in law upset the number 1 team in the Nation.  Yes, their brother-in-law is in fact Tom Crean, the coach of the Indiana Basketball Hoosiers (#3), who took out top ranked opponent Michigan last night.  So the Harbaugh's will walk away from the weekend with two of the biggest wins, one 'a tad' bigger than the other, and the loser of the family will only be able to rest of his AFC or NFC Championship banner.

10.  One of my favorite prop bets from each Super Bowl.  The Coin Toss.  Now there are three different ways you can bet on this.  Normally it would be heads or tails, but I believe in the Super Bowl, the coin merely has pictures of each teams logo on either side.  So you can bet on who wins, will the team that wins the coin toss win the game, and will the team that wins the toss choose offense or defense.  Now all of this might sound a bit silly, but this is sadly a real bet, one that will have over $100,000,000 on the line.  Get that 100 million.  Take that recession.  So with my prediction I will say that the Ravens "team of destiny" will win the toss.

9.  Will Beyonce be joined on stage by Jay Z during the Half time Show (odds.  Yes: 11/10, No: 2/3)  Yes, this is in fact a bet.  Although it isn't the craziest one involving Beyonce.  That award goes to the Will Beyonce's hair be curly/crimped or straight at the beginning of the Super Bowl Halftime Show.  (Curly/Crimped: Even)  Now this is a difficult prediction to make.  If the game were next year it would be a no brainer and you could add in Alicia Keys.  The game is being played in NY so of course we would get a rendition of Empire State of Mind.  However the game is in New Orleans.  We know we are going to get Single Ladies.  Perhaps we will get a surprise song by all of Destiny's Child.  But you know she will have someone else in her act.  I am going to go with the odds and say yes we will get Jay Z, either for Crazy in Love or Deja Vu.  That could bump off Single Ladies and save my ears the extra pain.

8.  The list of crazy Prop Bets is astounding with the color of gatorade, who Obama will pick, and many different bets on the number of times "Harbaugh" "Harbowl" or "Jack Harbaugh" will be mentioned.  But perhaps my favorite crazy bet is on the number of Tweets per second.  With the popularity of Twitter the over/under is 17,000.  Which means at some point in the game 17,000 tweets will be sent at the same time.  With all the wacky and weird stuff going on in the game, you have to go with the over.

Yea that Guy  MVP

7.  Super Bowl MVP.  Now the two Qbs have the best odds with Flacco at 11/4 and Kaepernick at 7/4 but I am going to predict a couple of sleepers.  Ray Lewis might be a favorite pick at 7/1 or Ray Rice at 10/1 but I am going to go with the two TEs.  Vernon Davis at 18/1 or Dennis Pitta at 40/1.  In order for the Ravens to win Pitta is going to have to go off, so I think a two touchdown, 100 yard game isn't out of the question.  Go with Pitta with such great odds.

6.  A Beer Ad will NOT be the best commercial.  So many years the beer companies come up with new inventive ways to show you that Bud Light really does taste better or different from Budweiser.  This year, expect an upset.  I'm thinking either Pizza or Car, but long odds at Insurance.  Oh and I'm taking the over on more than 15 music artists featured in ads.  Favorite Ad

5.  Best Movie Trailer Commercial.  No extra gimmicks or jokes.  Flat out and simple, Man of Steel has the best trailer.  Iron Man 3 will show too much, World War Z looks too CGI-ed, and I worry about Star Trek giving the plot away.  

4.  Who will the Super Bowl MVP thank first.  (Odds.  Teammates:  5/4; God: 5/2; Coach: 12/1; Family: 12/1; Owner: 15/1; No One: 9/4)  I definitely understand Teammates but with players like Ray Lewis, you have to go with God.  Who knew God is not the Odds on favorite.  If you are looking for an upset, I'd go with Coach at 12/1.  With both the brothers in the game a player might go coach first.

3.  Oh, and there is an actual game happening.  Ravens will stop Kaepernick from running.  Don't expect a Packer-Niners game.  The Ravens are far too smart and have watched the Falcons tape.  The Ravens will stop the run and the Niners will have to rely on Kaepernick's arm and Gore's legs.  As a side note.  If the Ravens really wanted to win they would allow Kaepernick to run and instead shut out the pass.  A slower running game helps the old Ravens D, although one could argue that it will wear them down.  But the Packer game was an anomaly.  Usually Kaepernick uses the Pistol to scramble, not flat out run.  I'd worry more about his arm, then his legs.

2.  Number 2 is a double, because one is a statement, and true.  Randy Moss is an Idiot.  When Moss came out this week and declared himself the greatest WR ever, he lost any credibility he had, which was nearly nonexistent.  Moss needs to listen to Beyonce sing Single Ladies, because both have a lot in common, both the subjects of the song and Moss don't have any rings.  He isn't even in the top 3.  I put him at number 4.  3.  Tim Brown  2. Don Hutson  1.  The immortal, Jerry Rice.

The second is This will be one of the best Super Bowl games of all time.  AKA if you are expecting a blowout, watch a Wizards game.  I expect this to come down to the fourth and less than a touchdown between the two teams and the winner is…

1.  The Winner Is…  The Ravens.   Do I buy into "the team of destiny" no, but I do buy into a team that went on the road and beat Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.  If the Ravens do as I predict and shut down the run, I like the Ravens running attack better.  Pierce and Rice against Gore.  I also trust Anquan Bolden and Torrey Smith more than Randy Moss and Michael Crabtree any day of the week.  Ed Reed picks up an interception, Lewis pulls a couple of good plays, Tucker makes the perfect field goal.  Ravens 27 - Niners 24 and I win a chunk of change, beer, and Capitol Tickets.