It is Oscar time once again and here are my predictions for this year's awards. The problem with the Oscars, much like any awards ceremony, it subjectivity and politics. For instance, the Best picture category expanded to 10 movies entirely because of the snubbing of The Dark Knight, now the Academy has decided up to 10 movies can be nominated and this year only 9 got the nod, snubbing The Dark Knight Rises. Now you can argue with me on whether or not Rises truly is a snub, because movies like The Master, Moonrise Kingdom, and small budget Safety Not Guaranteed were equally as good, but it is ironic to find a category snub the big brother of a movie, that made the category expand.
For each of these categories I will predict who I think will win and who the Academy should pick, rarely do they match up in any given year.
Best Picture
The Nominees are: Amour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty.
The Academy Should Pick: Argo
The Winner Is..: Argo
This year there is no definite winner for best picture. I loved Les Miz, but the critics hated it, so that's out. Django was good, but not great. The same can be said for most of the movies in this category. However there are three standouts: Argo, Lincoln, and Life of Pi. I will go into Life of Pi in other categories but I think this is a race between Argo and Lincoln. They snubbed Ben Affleck from best director so they might make it up to him. Originally I picked Lincoln to win this category, but I came to an overall consensus on how I feel about both films. Lincoln has moments, moments that are better than any other moments or scenes in movies this year, but overall Argo has a consistency and accuracy to the plot that makes me believe that it should and will win the Oscar. Much like previous winning movies like Crash or Slumdog Millionaire, Argo is driven entirely by brilliant casting and it is the ensemble that deserves to be recognized. I hope Argo wins, although if Lincoln were to take home the top prize, I wouldn't complain.
Best Actor
The Nominees are: Daniel Day-Lewis, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman, Joaquin Phoenix, Denzel Washington.
The Academy Should Pick: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
The Winner Is..: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
This isn't a competition at all. Lewis gives, what in my opinion, is his best performance of his illustrious career. He is quite possibly the greatest modern actor, and in the top five for greatest actors ever. The other four candidates in this category give solid performances, but as with This is Spinal Tap, Lewis is an 11 out of 10. On a side note, John Hawkes was robbed for not getting a nomination.
Best Actress
The Nominees are: Jessica Chastain, Jennifer Lawrence, Emmanuelle Riva, Quvenzhane Wallis, Naomi Watts.
The Academy Should Pick: Emmanuelle Riva for Amour
The Winner Is..: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook.
I have a crush on Jennifer Lawrence, but even that crush is not enough for me to think she was great in Playbook; I'm not drinking that Kool-aid. Nor will I drink it for Jessica Chastain. I thought she was fine, but really there was very little "acting" done in that role. Look angry, have no facial emotions. Good work, but not great. Watts has about the same performance and Wallis is great at being a kid. Riva is the only one here who truly deserves this award, but it will go to one of the J's.
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
The Nominees are: Tommy Lee Jones, Alan Arkin, Robert De Niro, Philip Seymour Hoffman, Christoph Waltz
The Academy Should Pick: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
The Winner Is..: Robert De Niro for Playbook.
This is a very interesting category because for Waltz and Hoffman, I think they carried their movies. For De Niro, this is something we have never seen from him. Arkin is hilarious. And Jones is down right historic. I'd have no problem with any of these people winning, although I think Waltz as Hans Landa was much better. I think Tommy Lee Jones gives a subtle, controlled, un-Tommy Lee Jones movie, captivating performance. He or Hoffman would do well to win here. But the Academy will give the award to De Niro and I'll be pissed cause Jones got screwed.
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
The Nominees are: Amy Adams, Sally Field, Anne Hathaway, Helen Hunt, Jacki Weaver.
The Academy Should Pick: Anne Hathaway for Les Miz.
The Winner Is..: Anne Hathaway for Les Miz.
Normally I have a problem with giving an Academy Award for just one scene, one song, but this year I make an exception. Top five greatest moments in movie musical theatre history, I dreamed a dream, takes on a whole new message with Hathaway. Helen Hunt was also superb in an underrated movie, but the other three have no business in this category this year.
Best Director
The Nominees are: Steven Spielberg, David O Russell, Ang Lee, Benh Zeitlin, Michael Haneke
The Academy Should Pick: Ben Affleck for Argo
The Winner Is..: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln.
Hands down Ben Affleck gave the directing performance of a lifetime, but he was snubbed, so we go with Spielberg for his ten year+ gamble and determination. Ang Lee also deserves to be here for taking an impossible to film book and breaking the odds.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees are: Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook
The Academy Should Pick: Tony Kushner for Lincoln
The Winner Is..: I'm hoping for Tony Kushner for Lincoln.
This is a worrisome pick because the odds on favorite is Argo and Life of Pi is a brilliant work, as I said, turning an impossible to film book into a brilliant screenplay. But I have to go with my heart and my gut. Kushner is one of the greatest living playwrights (Angels in America) and he worked on this script for multiple years. Think about all the dialogue in this movie, there is no evidence of who said what, so Kushner essentially re-created history. Brilliant.
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees are: Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty
The Academy Should Pick: Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom
The Winner Is..: Quentin Tarantino For Django Unchained
I'm actually a Quentin Tarantino fan. But I was not a massive fan of Django Unchained. I thought it was good but certainly not as good as Inglorious Basterds. On the other hand, Moonrise Kingdom deserved an Oscar nod for best picture but fell into the comedy junk box. Most people love Rushmore and Tenenbaums but I think this is a wonderful masterpiece. The relationship between the two young students is really wonderful and it sparks from the story. Django wins. Moonrise Kingdom is a comedy.
Best Cinematography
The Nominees are: Anna Karenina, Django Unchained, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
The Academy Should Pick: Life of Pi
The Winner Is..: Claudio Miranda for Life of Pi
Much like the best actor category this is a lock. I can't explain this other than to say go and watch the movie and you will understand.
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees are: Wreck-It Ralph, Brave, Frankenweenie, The Pirates! Band of Pirates. ParaNorman
The Academy Should Pick: The Pirates! Band of Pirates
The Winner Is..: *Wreck-It Ralph
A difficult category. Will the Academy go with the box office favorite Brave or ParaNorman, both which I found lacking in plot and character development. Frankenweenie is not my type of movie, but it is a wonderful ode to 50's horror classics in a modern day kids comedy. The underrated movie of the year is Pirates! from the studio that brought you Wallace and Gromit. But what I believe is a great movie, very smart and funny, is Wreck-It Ralph, and I hope it takes home the top prize.
Best Documentary Feature Film
The Nominees are: Searching for Sugar Man, The Invisible War, How to Survive a Plague, The Gatekeepers, 5 Broken Cameras
The Academy Should Pick: 5 Broken Cameras
The Winner Is..: Searching for Sugar Man
For the longest time I thought Sugar Man was not just a great doc, but a wonderful movie and one of the best of the year. That is, until I saw 5 Broken Cameras. This is truly a wonderful, incredibly depressing documentary masterpiece. The scene where the camera breaks when we watch the bullet fly into the lens and save the man's life is something extraordinary.
Best Foreign Film
The Nominees are: Amour, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch
The Academy Should Pick: No
The Winner Is..: Amour
Amour is going to win. It's a lock. But if you get the chance go and see the Chilean movie, No. It stars Gael Garcia Bernal and looks at the Augusto Pinochet reign of terror in Chile and the ingenious way that they removed him from power.
Best Costume Design
The Nominees are: Anna Karenina, Les Miserables, Lincoln, Mirror Mirror, Snow White and the Huntsman
The Academy Should Pick: Les Miserables
The Winner Is..: Anna Karenina
I know nothing about costume design, but I liked the design in Les Miz, but Karenina was very historically accurate.
Best Makeup/Hair Design
The Nominees are: Hitchcock, The Hobbit, Les Miserables
The Academy Should Pick: I don't care
The Winner Is..: I don't care; Les Miserables
I could care less about this category, not because I dislike it, but because Cloud Atlas should have won this.
Best Music Score
The Nominees are: Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
The Academy Should Pick: Life of Pi or Argo
The Winner Is..: Argo
The Favorite is Life of Pi but I am a fan of Argo and Alexandre Desplat, and I think he managed to keep what could have sounded rather cheesy, and made it rather deep and important.
Best Original Song
The Nominees are: Chasing Ice, Ted, Life of Pi, Skyfall, Les Miserables
The Academy Should Pick: This is a dumb category when it allows "Ted" (Which I liked) to be an Academy Nominated Movie
The Winner Is..: Skyfall from Skyfall by Adele
I don't care. Les Miserables is pandering by creating a song just for this category and Skyfall is a really dumb song. But it is still Adele and she is one of the most amazing voices ever.
Best Documentary Short
The Nominees are: Inocente, Kings Point, Mondays at Racine, Open Heart, Redemption
The Academy Should Pick: No idea
The Winner Is..: Open Heart
I know nothing about this category, but Open Heart is a nice name.
Best Animated Short
The Nominees are: Adam and Dog, Fresh Guacamole, Head over Heels, Maggie Simpson..., Paperman
The Academy Should Pick: Who has time to watch these, not Maggie Simpson.
The Winner Is..: Adam and Dog
I saw Paperman and liked it, but I also saw Adam and Dog and because it isn't called Adam and "the" Dog, I'll pick it.
Best Live Action Short
The Nominees are: Asad, Buzkashi Boys, Curfew, Death of a Shadow, Henry
The Academy Should Pick: Buzkashi Boys
The Winner Is..: Buzkashi Boys
This is a short that I hope everyone gets a chance to see. It's about two kids in Afghanistan and a very brutal national sport.
Best Film Editing
The Nominees are: Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty
The Academy Should Pick: Argo or Zero Dark Thirty
The Winner Is..: Argo
Argo was well edited.
Best Production Design
The Nominees are: Anna Karenina, The Hobbit, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln
The Academy Should Pick: Life of Pi
The Winner Is..: Les Miserables
Sure
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees are: Argo, Life of Pi, Django Unchained, Skyfall, Zero Dark Thirty
The Academy Should Pick: Argo or Life of Pi
The Winner Is..: Skyfall
How the hell should I know.
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees are: Argo, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall
The Academy Should Pick: Les Miserables
The Winner Is..: Les Miserables
This one I do know a little about. The work the sound team did on Les Miserables was brilliant. Tom Hooper deserved a special award for what he did on the movie and mark my words live singing is going to be the new thing in Movie Musicals, but the sound department did a brilliant job mixing the sound within the scene.
Best Special Effects
The Nominees are: The Hobbit, Life of Pi, The Avengers, Prometheus, Snow White and the Huntsman
The Academy Should Pick: The Avengers
The Winner Is..: Life of Pi
I said it in Cinematography, Life of Pi looks amazing, but why can't the blockbuster of the year win one?
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